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France: are real estate prices starting to decrease?

  • Data Insights
Published by Lauriane Halle 8 months and 4 weeks ago
Paris Building

PriceHubble, the proptech specialized in big data and artificial intelligence for real estate markets, published today the results of its latest analysis on residential property prices in France’s main cities: Paris, Bordeaux, Nantes , Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Nice, Rennes, Strasbourg and Toulouse. It's official: for the first time since 2014, a price decrease seems to appear in Paris.

Paris: a bell curve, and the start of a fall in prices

The data studied for Paris between January and July 2020 shows a “bell curve”, with a median price announced at 12,000 € / m2 in January, a peak at 12,600 € / m2 in April, then a drop to 11,950 € / m2 at the end of July. In the end, a very slight drop of 0.4% between January and July is observed.

If this decrease isn’t very significant for the moment, it will be necessary to follow these indicators very closely in the next few months, and especially at the end of September, to see if this trend is confirmed or reversed. It should also be put into perspective with the figures reported by the Notaries over the coming months. This early trend detected in the offers indeed reinforces or even amplifies the point of view of the Notaries of Greater Paris in their monthly report of July 29th, which explains that "a stagnation of prices seems to be taking shape in Paris".

This bell curve is also appearing, to a smaller extent, in Marseille and Rennes.

Lille, Lyon and Strasbourg: a double-digit growth

In all the other considered cities, a more than substantial increase was observed, sometimes at more than 10%, as in Lille (+ 11.1%), Lyon (+ 12%) or Strasbourg (+ 11.4%). Be careful, once again: these figures are not the signed amounts, but only the real time prices as per the offers published online, which give an idea of ​​the amounts expected by sellers.

Prices 10 cities France.png
Price trends January-July 2020

Methodology

In order to carry out this study, PriceHubble analyzed 46,099 offers for sale published on the main real estate ad portals (for individuals and professionals) between January 1st and July 31th 2020 in Paris, Bordeaux, Nantes, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Nice, Rennes, Strasbourg and Toulouse.

PriceHubble thus took into account new offers posted online month by month. The calculated median prices are therefore not necessarily those which will be effectively signed by the notary, but they allow to feel the pulse of the market in real time, 2 to 3 months ahead of what the notaries can see when signing the compromises of sale.

For more information on this study and on the evolution of residential property prices in France, do not hesitate to contact us!


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